Abstract: Based on statistical data from 2011 to 2020, the carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the Pearl River Delta region were measured. And the STIRPAT model was applied to predict peak carbon emissions under eight scenarios from 2021 to 2035, meanwhile, the shift-share analysis method was employed to evaluate the interregional transfer of transportation carbon emissions from 2011 to 2019. The research results show that carbon emissions from transportation sector in the Pearl River Delta region have shown a trend of initial decline followed by an increase from 2011 to 2020. Under scenarios of low economic growth and rapid development of environmental technology, carbon emissions are projected to reach their peak by 2030. Moreover, the optimization of transportation structure and energy structure has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions. From 2011 and 2019, there have been frequent interregional transfers of carbon emissions from transportation in the Pearl River Delta region, demonstrating a trend of shifting from economically developed areas to less developed areas.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; Pearl River Delta region; carbon emissions measurement; peak value; cross-regional transfer

摘要： 基于2011—2020年统计数据，对珠三角地区交通运输碳排放量进行测算，并应用STIRPAT模型预测2021—2035年8种情景下的碳排放峰值，同时借助偏离-份额分析法评估2011—2019年交通运输碳排放跨区转移情况。研究结果表明：2011—2020年珠三角地区交通运输碳排放呈先降后升趋势，在低速经济增长与环保技术高速发展情景下，预计碳排放将于2030年达峰，且交通运输结构与能源结构优化对碳排放具有抑制作用；2011—2019年间，珠三角地区交通运输碳排放跨区转移频繁，呈现出由经济发达地区向欠发达地区转移的趋势。

关键词: 交通运输工程； 珠三角地区； 碳排放量测算； 峰值； 跨区转移量