Abstract: Based on grey models GM(1，1)，the prediction model of transport quantity passing a dam is established.The practical implementation of the model Was accomplished by a case study in prediction of transport quantity passing the lock of the Wujiang River Yinpan Dam.Results show that the model based on grey models is feasible and has higher reliability、

Key words: transport quantity passing a dam ;grey model;GM(1, 1)model;prediction

摘要： 为了解决复杂的过坝客货运量预测问题，基于灰色系统理论中的GM(1，1)模型对过坝运量预测建立灰色模 型，并利用该模型对乌江银盘枢纽过坝运量进行预测，结果表明利用灰色系统理论方法对过坝运量进行预测是可行 的，具有较高的可信度．

关键词: 过坝运量, 灰色系统, GM(1, 1)模型, 预测