Abstract: The meaning of evaluating the accurate degree of risk estimation is analyzed．The author puts forward that the risk predictability should be regarded as an index to measure the degree of accuracy of predicting risk and the efect theories should taken as the foundation to construct the efect function of risk．Th e predictive result is evaluated too．which verifies the accuracy and the credibility of the risk estimate．

Key words: cost risk, predictability, eficacy function, computation and analysis

摘要： 分析风险预测准确程度进行评价的意义，提出了将风险可预测性作为风险预测准确程度的评价指标，并以效 应理论为基础构造风险可预测性效用函数，实现了风险预测结果的评价，验证了风险预测的准确性和可靠性．

关键词: 成本风险, 可预测性, 效用函数, 计算分析