Abstract: Combined?with?the?characteristics?of?four-step?method?of?traffic?planning,the?four-step?method?of?traffic?planning?is?applied?to?logistics?demand?forecast?of?urban?logistics?planning,?and?the?methods?and?models?are?discussed?and?studied?respectively?in?each?step.?Finally,?according?to?the?application?of?the?four-step?logistics?demand?forecast?method,?the?corre-?sponding?methods?and?contents?of?urban?logistics?investigation?and?analysis?are?introduced?briefly.

Key words: four-step method of traffic planning , logistics demand forecast , forecast model

摘要： 结合交通规划四阶段法的特点,在城市物流规划中的物流需求预测基础上,研究了物流需求分阶段的预测方 法,并对物流需求预测模型进行了应用分析,最后基于四阶段物流需求预测,论述了相应的城市物流调查与分析的 内容和方法。

关键词: 交通规划四阶段法, 物流需求预测, 预测模型