Abstract: On the basis of demand forecasting method of road passenger transportation，combing with one of the growth coefficient method，Detroit method，a system for passenger transportation demand distribution forecasting based on Excel VBA was designed and developed． Fujian province，as case study for road passenger transportation demand distribution forecasting， was divided into 9 traffic villages． According to the passenger traffic statistics data of each traffic village in the nearly 5 years，the system was used to forecast the demand distribution volume for 2015，considering the population distribution and economic development trend． Through calculation，it is found that the average relative error rate is 13． 1% by comparing the forecasting data with survey data． The results show that the proposed system has the advantages of simple operation， high accuracy and operation speed; the working efficiency of the passenger transportation planning can be improved with this system．

Key words: distribution forecasting of passenger transportation demand, Detroit method, four-stage method, Excel VBA

摘要： 在分析道路客运需求预测方法的基础上，结合增长系数法中的底特律方法，设计开发基于Excel VBA 的客运 需求分布预测系统。以福建省道路客运需求分布预测为例，将区域划分为9 个交通小区，根据各交通小区近5 年客 运统计数据，综合考虑人口分布与经济发展趋势，通过系统实现了2015 年的道路客运需求分布量的预测。经计算， 预测表与实际调查表平均相对误差率为13． 1%。应用结果表明: 采用该系统预测目标年的客运分布，操作简便，精 度较高，运行速度快，可提高客运规划的工作效率。

关键词: 客运需求分布预测, 底特律法, 四阶段法, Excel VBA