Abstract: In this paper , based on Analy sis on mechanism of Dingzhuang industry area Landslides and the author , s practical experiences, the four factors of landslides occurrence are presented, which are intrinsic factor , drop in water level of reservoir , torrential and earthquake .The measurement targets and criterion are presented.occurrence probability of Dingzhuang industry area Landslides is analyzed by probability statistics and the conclusion is similar to the fact .

Key words: landslide , probability of landslide occurrence , torrential , drop in water level of reservoir, earthquake

摘要： 笔者通过对丰都丁庄裂口工业区滑坡的机理分析及工程实践经验,总结出了滑坡致滑的四大主要因子 ———内因、库位降落、暴雨和地震.提出了各因子致滑概率的度量指标及其致滑概率的标准值,建立了概率统计 分析方法,并将此方法用于丰都丁庄裂口工业区滑坡的致滑概率分析,所得的结论与实际情况比较吻合

关键词: 滑坡, 致滑概率, 暴雨, 库位降落, 地震