Abstract: For new urban districts,the traditional 4-phase transportation demand forccasting model can not meet the meet of the master planning due to the lack of the trip generation & distribution phase data.There are lots of difference between new blocks and constructed blcoks. How to differntiate the difference is a problem in traffic forecastin.Analyses based on locatpn potential energy proides a way to solve the problem .

Key words: new blocks;traffic forecast, locatpn potential energy

摘要： 对于新建城市(区),传统的四阶段交通需求预测模式难以适应城市总规阶段交通规划的需要,因为出行生成和分布预测阶段所必需的条件无法满足.新城区与建成区在交通特性上有很大的差异,交通总体需求预测过程中一个难题是如何量化分析这一差异.通过对区位势能的研究,可以很好地量化分析新城区交通总体需求预测问题.

关键词: 新城区, 交通总体需求预测, 区位势能