Abstract: According to the constraint conditiond of individual roadway area and the correlation between different competitive traffic tools,this paper discusses the percentage of urban passenger transport after analyzing the trend of urban bicycle traffic development.The traveleling efficacy is considered as the influence factor of traffic transferring. And then,the model of bicycle traffic transferring is established by probabnity selectivity. At last,the measures to control bicycle traffic transferring are put forward bere in order to optimize the percentage of urban passenger transport.

Key words: bicycle traffic, percentage of passenger transport, traveling efficacy, traffic transferring

摘要： 在分析城市自行车交通发展趋势的基础上，本文根据城市人均道路的面积约束和竞争类交通出行的相关性， 探讨了城市客运结构，并以出行效用作为交通转移的影响因素，根据概率选择原理建立了自行车交通转移模型．最 后提出了控制自行车交通转移的措施，以实现城市客运结构的优化．

关键词: 自行车交通, 客运分担率, 出行效用, 交通转移