Abstract: There are so many influences in traffic flow forecasting．It's a crucial need to assess the prediction mode1．However，previous at tempts to develop assessment model have met limited success．In this paper，an new quantificational method has been proposed by fussy mathematics. it uses fussy transform to make a conclusion．It’s more faster，more exact，more logical，and can be used to judge of two or three prediction models at one time.

Key words: fuzzy anaysis, traffic flow, prediction, application

摘要： 影响交通流状态预测的因素很多，如何对预测效果作出评价十分重要．过去往往根据一两个指标的简单对比 得出结论，或者仅作定性评价，缺乏严密性．本文运用模糊数学方法，建立了一个量化的评价模型，通过模糊变换及其他相关计算得出结论，较常规方法更快、更准确、更科学，更适合多种预测方法同时进行比较．

关键词: 模糊分析, 交通流, 预测, 应用