Abstract: Aiming at the analysis of the debris flow disaster characteristics,the evaluated factors and the nonlinear subordinate functions are selected to determine the membership degree of every factor.The weights of the impacted factors are determined by the hierarchy process.The dangerous size of the mudslides is assessed by the secondary fuzzy analytic method.And the example assessed by the dangerous size of the five debris flow ditches in Yunnan show that the fuzzy analytic method can reflect the dangerous conditions of the debris flow,and it provides the decision-making basis for the debris flow prevention and the project reinforcement.

Key words: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, debris flow, analytic hierarchy process, nonlinear subordinate function, judge dangerous degree

摘要： 针对泥石流灾害的自身特点,选取合理评价因子及构造非线性隶属函数确定各因子隶属度,用层次分析确定各影响因子的权重,采用二级模糊综合评定方法评定泥石流危险度。并以云南地区五条泥石流沟危险度为评价实例。结果表明该评定方法能够较好地反映各泥石流沟危险性状况,可为泥石流的预防和工程加固提供决策依据。

关键词: 模糊综合评判, 泥石流, 层次分析法, 非线性隶属函数, 危险度评价