Abstract: In this paper a state-space model is proposed for a transportation-road system. In the model investment, pavement distress and transportation capacity are selected as the decision variable, the state variable and the output variable, respectively. With the model and the discussions on predictions of transportation capacity and transportation demand, a transportation tracking problem is formulated and the corresponding model is given. Two sorts of algorithms of the transportation tracking model are derived and their applications are discussed. A case study is presented to show how to deal with practical details. In the end-several important problems unsolved are pointed out.

Key words: investment, pavement distress, transportation-capacity prediction, tran sportation-demand prediction, transportation-road system and its model, transportation tracking model, tromsportation planning

摘要： 本文中把一个地区或国家内所有道路的全体、称为该地区或国家的运输道路系统,而把道路等级和不同等级道路的多少称为系统的路况。基于投资决定路况、路况决定运力这一事实,以投资、路况和运力分别为控制变量、状态变量和输出变量,建立了道路系统的状态空间模型。以这个模型为基础,考虑到需求决定投资,在讨论了运输需求预测之后,阐述了运输跟踪控制问题并给出了相应的跟踪控制模型,该模型既可用于实时决策与控制,也可用于制定交通规划。文中导出了跟踪控制模型两种用途的递推优化算法,结合实例说明了算法使用中有关细节问题的处理,最后指出了有待进一步研究的问题。

关键词: 投资, 路况, 运力预测, 运输需求预测, 运输道路系统及模型, 运输跟踪控制模型, 运输规划