Abstract: The travel between groups was divided into three stages: within the starting group, between the groups and within the destination group. The decision-making indicators were established based on the analysis of the related issues of residents’ travel between the groups. Then, according to the psychological characteristic that there was dynamic expectation in the travel mode selection of residents in groups, a travel mode decision analysis method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed. In the proposed method, firstly, the weight was determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then, based on the establishment of reference point and decision matrix, the attribute values of different variables were normalized, and then the benefit loss decision matrix and prospect decision matrix of each mode relative to the reference point were established, and the comprehensive prospect value of each travel mode was calculated and sorted. Among them, the mode with the largest comprehensive prospect value was the most satisfactory one for the traveler. Finally, a case study was carried out.

Key words: traffic engineering, urban transportation, travel mode selection, prospect theory, travel between groups, foreground value

摘要： 将组团间出行划分为出发组团内部、组团之间和目的组团内部3个阶段，在分析组团间居民出行相关问题的基础上建立决策指标，然后针对组团间居民出行方式选择存在动态期望这一心理特征，给出一种基于累积前景理论的出行方式决策分析方法。该方法先通过层次分析法确定权重，接着在参照点、决策矩阵建立的基础上，将不同变量的属性值进行规范化后建立各方式相对于参照点的益损决策矩阵和前景决策矩阵，并计算各出行方式综合前景值并排序，其中综合前景值最大的方式最让出行者满意。最后，进行实例应用。

关键词: 交通工程, 城市交通, 出行方式选择, 前景理论, 组团间出行, 前景值