Abstract: In order to establish a reliability analysis method for permanent pavement structures based on the variability range of the measured parameters, firstly, a double-sided truncated distribution random number sampling method with parameter boundedness was established, which was based on the principles of probability equivalence and inverse transformation method. Secondly, limit state equations were established and a multi-indicator reliability calculation program was developed by selecting the verification indicators of surface layer, base layer, and subgrade structure in the current asphalt pavement design specifications. The analysis results were compared with the reliability program of theoretical distribution random variables. Finally, combined with the measured parameter variability level, the established reliability analysis method was used to evaluate the post-construction reliability of the permanent pavement structure of the Jing-De Expressway. The results show that the truncated distribution better conforms to the actual distribution of engineering parameters, and the calculated reliability is more accurate. Under moderate traffic load levels, the reliability of the Jing-De Expressway pavement structure ranges from 95.2 to 98.7%. After accumulating equivalent axle load cycle failure points, the reliability values of the surface layer, base layer, and subgrade of the permanent pavement structure all decrease with the increase of axle load cycles, and the greater the load, the faster the rate of reliability value decrease, and the lower the reliability.

Key words: highway engineering; asphalt pavement reliability; semi-rigid base; truncated normal distribution; Monte Carlo method; response surface method

摘要： 为建立基于实测参数变异范围的永久路面结构可靠度分析方法，首先基于概率等效原则和逆变换法建立参数“有界”性的双侧截尾分布随机数抽样方法；然后选取现行沥青路面设计规范中面层、基层和路基结构的验算指标建立极限状态方程并开发多指标可靠度计算程序，将分析结果与理论分布随机变量可靠度程序对比；最后结合实测参数变异性水平，使用建立的可靠度分析方法评估京德高速永久路面结构的工后可靠度。结果表明：截尾分布更符合工程参数的真实分布，计算的可靠度更准确；中等交通荷载等级下，京德高速的路面结构可靠度为95.2%~98.7%；在累计当量轴次失效点后，永久路面结构面层、基层和路基的可靠度值均随轴次的增大而减小，且荷载越大，可靠度值下降速率越快，可靠度也越低。

关键词: 道路工程；沥青路面可靠度；半刚性基层；截断正态分布；Monte Carlo法；响应面法