中文核心期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊

Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science) ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 955-957.

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Risk Management and Decision-making of Highway Pavement Construction Based on Utility Theory

WU Yi-fei1,TAN Jian-ming2,HE Shou-kui3,LI Ming2   

  1. 1.Chongqing Constraction Engineering Group Corporation Ltd.,Chongqing 401147,China; 2.Traffic Engineering Test Center of Chongqing Fengdu County,Chongqing 408200,China; 3.Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China
  • Received:2010-05-13 Revised:2010-07-14 Online:2010-12-15 Published:2015-01-22

基于效用理论的高速公路路面施工风险管理决策

吴逸飞,谭建明,何寿奎,李明   

  1. 1.重庆建工渝通机械化分公司,重庆 401147; 2.重庆市丰都县交通工程试验检测中心,重庆 408200; 3.重庆交通大学,重庆 400074
  • 作者简介:吴逸飞(1972—),男,青海西宁人,高级工程师,主要从事高等级公路建设、管理方面的研究。E-mail:sharkxixi@126.com。

Abstract: In this paper,basic principles of risk management were employed to identify quality,safety,schedule and cost risk of northeast section of Chongqing by pass expressway. Optimal decisions by different decision makers were analyzed through applied risk management utility theory. The study indicated that risk attitude could exert great influence on risk decision. Risk management decision-making incentive and restrictive mechanism were established.

Key words: utility theory, risk identification, dynamic control, management mechanism

摘要: 首先应用风险管理的基本原理,对重庆绕城高速东北段路面项目质量、安全、进度、成本风险进行识别;其次, 应用风险管理效用理论分析不同决策者的最优决策方案。研究表明:风险态度对风险决策结果有重要影响。提出 了建立风险管理决策激励约束机制。

关键词: 效用理论, 风险识别, 动态控制, 管理机制

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