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Lane-changing risk in freeway off-ramp areas based on EF-GCN
Fang Mingshan1, Li Yi2, Yu Shanchan3, Wu You2, Dong Xin2
2026, 45(8):
67-74.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2026.08.08
Accurately predicting vehicle lane-changing risk in freeway off-ramp areas is crucial for enhancing road traffic safety, as this risk exhibits characteristics of “short cycles, strong fluctuations, and rapid decay”. Addressing issues of traditional methods being difficult to quantify multiple vehicle interactions, single energy field easily ignoring spatial cascading effects, and graph convolutional networks (GCN) lacking physical meaning in graph structure weights and unable to adapt to dynamic traffic scenarios, a vehicle risk prediction model (EF-GCN) that combined energy field (EF) and GCN was proposed to optimize the accuracy of risk prediction. Firstly, an energy field model was constructed based on UAV aerial data, generating a global risk heat map that quantified physical interaction intensity. Secondly, the EF-GCN model was proposed to map risk values to dynamic graph weights, accurately capturing global risk cascading effects triggered by lane changes through neighborhood aggregation. Finally, GRU was introduced to establish a temporal prediction branch, which simplified the dual gate control structure to eliminate redundant historical information and capture the temporal dependencies of risk evolution. Experimental verification based on the Shanghai Central Ring Road dataset demonstrates that the EF-GCN model, benefiting from the fusion of energy field physical representation and GCN spatial features, significantly outperforms traditional dynamics and single energy field models in risk assessment accuracy. Compared to the EF-GCN-LSTM model, the EF-GCN-GRU reduces ERMS by 9.38% and EMA by 9.30%, while improving EMS performance by 17.89%. The significant advantage of the proposed model lies in the construction of a “physical mechanism support and spatiotemporal deep fusion” architecture, which maps risk heat maps to dynamic graph structures, endows GCN with physical meaning, and breaks through the bottleneck of static graphs. Simultaneously, it accurately captures global risk cascading effects triggered by lane changes, clearly revealing the physical evolution law of risk, that is, “accumulation-peak-decline”.
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