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Nonlinear Effects of Weather and Built Environment on
Passengers’ Bus Commuting Time
LI Xiaowei1, LIU Qian1, SHI Lanxin1,2, LI Haotian1, CHEN Jun1, SHI Zongqi3
2025, 44(3):
96-104.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2025.03.13
Revealing the mechanism of the influence of built environment and weather on passengers’ bus commuting time is the key to optimize passengers’ commuting time and improve bus sharing rate. Taking Weinan city in Shaanxi as an example, the variables such as passengers’ commuting time during evening peak hours, weather, and the built environment of the origin and destination were extracted through the fusion and mining of multiple sources of spatiotemporal big data. The CatBoost model and SHAP were used to analyze the feature importance and nonlinearity influence of the built environment and the weather on passengers’ bus commuting time during the evening peak hours. The research results show that CatBoost model has good fitting and prediction performance, which is significantly better than XGBoost, KNN, LR and Bayesian Ridge. The significance influencing factors in descending order are: origin science and education density, origin residential density, destination life service density, origin diversity, origin road density, destination residential density, destination diversity, temperature, and precipitation. Among them, the residential density of origin and destination, origin diversity, origin road density have a significant negative impact on the commuting time of passengers during the evening rush hour, while the increase of destination diversity and the rise of the temperature will potentially increase the bus commuting time of passengers during the evening rush hour. The origin science and education density, destination life service density have a significant nonlinear influence on the commuting time of residents.
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