灰色新陈代谢模型在滑坡动态监测中的应用

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2014.05.20

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摘要: 将灰色系统理论应用于滑坡动态监测数据分析，提出了使用新陈代谢RGM(1，1)模型进行预测，并用最小二乘法求解模型参数；给出了模型精度的检验方法；以实际的滑坡观测数据为例，将分析和预测结果与传统GM 模型进行比对，获得了更好的拟合数据和预测数据。

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	蔡军

关键词 ：环境工程, 滑坡, 动态监测, 新陈代谢RGM(1, 1)模型, 预测

Abstract：Grey system theory was used in the data analysis of landslide dynamic monitoring, and Grey Renewal GM (1, 1) Model was proposed to forecast the landslide. Least square was used to get the parameters of Grey Renewal GM (1, 1) model. Test methods were given to inspect the accuracy of the proposed model. According to the measured data of actual landslide, the analysis and prediction results of Grey Renewal GM (1, 1) model were compared with those got by the traditional GM model. Comparison results show that the Grey Renewal GM (1, 1) model is better than the traditional GM model in accuracy, fitting data and forecasting data.

Key words ： environmental engineering;landslide, dynamic monitoring, Renewal GM (1, 1) model, prediction

收稿日期: 2013-03-13

PACS:

P694

作者简介: 蔡军(1975—)，女，四川金堂人，实验师，主要从事工程测量的教学和科研工作。E-mail:cjpx123@126.com。

引用本文:

蔡军. 灰色新陈代谢模型在滑坡动态监测中的应用[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2014, 33(5): 92-94.
Cai Jun. Application of Grey Renewal Model on Landslide Dynamic Monitoring. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2014, 33(5): 92-94.

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http://xbzk.cqjtu.edu.cn/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2014.05.20 或 http://xbzk.cqjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2014/V33/I5/92

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