关键词: 行人, 激进过街, 人??车冲突和碰撞, 概率模型

Abstract: According to traffic conflict technique, the mechanism of pedestrian-vehicle conflict and collision is studied when aggressive pedestrians cross the single lane, and the probability models of single-lane pedestrian-vehicle conflict and collision are established. Then the specific probability values are calculated by the Bayesian statistics. The calculation out- comes show that the aggressive crossing pattern is one of the primary reasons for the pedestrian-vehicle conflict and colli- sion; the vehicle volume, instant velocity, reflection time are also the ingredients for crash. The research results will provide not only the references for the reasonable implement of traffic regulations measures on pedestrians＇ safety at the intersection and segment, but also the thought to develop the in-vehicle ITS against the pedestrian-vehicle crash and to simulate the safety of pedestrians crossing street.

Key words: pedestrians , aggressive crossing , pedestrian-vehicle traffic conflicts and collisions , model of probability ;