Abstract: With the health monitoring information of bridge structures (extreme stress value information monitored daily ) , the Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM) and the model monitoring mechanism were introduced , and the Bayesian dynamic linear predicting model of extreme stresses value was established. Based on the established Bayesian dynamic linear prediction model and first order second moment (FOSM) method , the structural reliability of the bridge was predicted. Finaly, an actual project was provided to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed model.

Key words: extreme stress value, Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM), first order second moment method, structural reliability

摘要： 结合桥梁结构的健康监测信息(应力极值信息)，引进了贝叶斯动态线性模型(BDLM)以及模型的监控机制， 建立了应力极值的贝叶斯动态线性预测模型;基于建立的贝叶斯动态线性预测模型和计算可靠度的一次二阶矩 (FOSM)方法，对桥梁结构的可靠度进行了预测;通过实例验证了所建模型的合理性。

关键词: 应力极值, 贝叶斯动态线性模型, 一次二阶矩方法, 结构可靠度