Maturity Model of Metro Emergency Response Capability Based on Improved Unascertained Measure

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2023.05.15

Abstract

Abstract: The research on the emergency response capability maturity of subway emergencies is helpful for subway operating companies to evaluate and improve emergency management. Based on the capability maturity model and unascertained measurement theory, a maturity evaluation model for subway emergency response capabilities was constructed. From the perspective of pre-event, during event and post-event, a subway emergency response capability evaluation index system was established, and the factors affecting the subway emergency response capability were divided into 6 types of first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators. 6 types of first-level indicators included organization and system, monitoring and preparation capabilities, emergency rescue capabilities, emergency handling capabilities, emergency recovery capabilities as well as accident summarization and analysis. The G1 method and the entropy weight theory were combined to determine the weight of each indicator, and the blind number theory and the unascertained measurement theory were used to improve the unascertained measurement model to deal with the uncertainty and ambiguity in evaluating the emergency response capability for handling subway emergencies. Taking Chengdu Metro as an example, the emergency response capability maturity evaluation was conducted to verify the rationality and practicability of the proposed model. The results show that the overall emergency response capability of Chengdu Metro is at the normative level. Among them, the maturity scores of organization and system as well as emergency rescue capabilities are relatively high, but the monitoring and preparation capabilities and emergency response capabilities need to be further improved.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; subway; emergency capability; maturity model; unascertained measure; emergency; blind number theory

摘要： 针对地铁突发事件应急能力成熟度研究有助于地铁运营公司对应急管理的评价与提升，在能力成熟度模型和未确知测度理论的基础上，构建地铁突发事件应急能力成熟度评价模型。从事前-事中-事后角度，建立地铁突发事件应急能力评价指标体系，将影响地铁应急能力的因素分为组织与制度、监控预备能力、应急救援能力、应急处理能力、应急恢复能力和事故总结分析6类一级指标和19个二级指标。通过G1法与熵权理论相结合的方法确定各指标权重，应用盲数理论和未确知测度理论改进未确知测度模型，处理地铁突发事件应急能力评估的不确定性和模糊性。以成都地铁为例，对其进行应急能力成熟度评价，验证模型的合理性与实用性。结果表明：成都地铁应急能力总体处于规范级，其中组织与制度和应急救援能力成熟度得分较高，但监控预备能力和应急处理能力需进一步提高。

关键词: 交通运输工程；地铁；应急能力；成熟度模型；未确知测度；突发事件；盲数理论

CLC Number:

U231+.92

ZHANG Peng, JIANG Yifan, ZHAN Yuxin. Maturity Model of Metro Emergency Response Capability Based on Improved Unascertained Measure[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2023, 42(5): 116-123.

张鹏，江逸帆，詹钰鑫. 基于改进未确知测度的地铁突发事件应急能力成熟度模型研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 42(5): 116-123.

References

［1］ WU H W, ZHEN J, ZHANG J. Urban rail transit operation safety evaluation based on an improved CRITIC method and cloud model ［J］. Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, 2020, 16: 100206.
［2］张建平,张凌翔,张宁,等.目标导向的多层次城市轨道交通运营安全风险评价指标体系［J］.都市快轨交通,2018,31(2):135-140.
ZHANG Jianping, ZHANG Lingxiang, ZHANG Ning, et al. Goal-oriented safety risk evaluation system of multi-level urban rail transit operation ［J］. Urban Rapid Rail Transit, 2018, 31(2): 135-140.
［3］ LUO H B, PENG X F, ZHONG B T. Application of ontology in emergency plan management of metro operation ［J］. Procedia engineering, 2016, 164: 158-165.
［4］杨琳,吕文逸.基于IPRMM模型的国际工程项目风险管理成熟度［J］.武汉大学学报(工学版),2020,53(4):310-317.
YANG Lin, LU Wenyi. International project risk management maturity based on IPRMM model ［J］. Journal of Wuhan University (Engineering Science Edition), 2020, 53(4): 310-317.
［5］ MA G F, TAN S, SHANG S S. The evaluation of building fire emergency response capability based on the CMM ［J］. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019, 16(11): 1962.
［6］王瑞强,许永莉,杜军,等.基于盲数与成熟度理论的化工园区火灾爆炸事故应急能力评估［J］.安全与环境工程,2021,28(2):30-35，43.
WANG Ruiqiang, XU Yongli, DU Jun, et al. Evaluation of emergency response capability of fire and explosion accidents in chemical industry park based on blind number and maturity theory ［J］. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2021, 28(2): 30-35, 43.
［7］赵金先,王苗苗,张英.地铁运营应急管理体系构建研究［J］.价值工程,2018,37(2):33-34.
ZHAO Jinxian, WANG Miaomiao, ZHANG Ying. Study on construction of emergency management system for metro operation ［J］. Value Engineering, 2018, 37(2): 33-34.
［8］ CHENG L H, GAO Y H. Evaluation model of emergency evacuation capacity of subway station based on grounded theory ［J］. World Journal of Engineering and Technology, 2019, 7(2): 27-37.
［9］卢文刚,彭静.广州城市地铁突发公共事件应急能力评价指标体系研究［J］.城市发展研究,2012,19(4):118-124.
LU Wengang, PENG Jing. The study of capability assessment for subway emergency system on Guangzhou ［J］. Urban Development Research, 2012,19(4): 118-124.
［10］袁孝伟.城市地铁应急能力评价指标体系研究［D］. 西安：西安科技大学,2011.
YUAN Xiaowei. Research on the Evaluation Index System of Urban Subway Emergency Ability ［D］. Xian: Xian University of Science and Technology, 2011.
［11］赵振江,祝蕾,张宁,等.基于信息流的城市轨道交通应急管理研究［J］.都市快轨交通,2017,30(6):104-109.
ZHAO Zhenjiang, ZHU Lei, ZHANG Ning, et al. Emergency management based on information flow in urban rail transit ［J］. Urban Express Rail Transit, 2017, 30(6): 104-109.
［12］刘开第,吴和琴,庞彦军,等.盲数的概念、运算与性质［J］.运筹与管理,1998(3):16-19.
LIU Kaidi, WU Heqin, PANG Yanjun, et al. The concept, operations and properties of blind number ［J］. Operations Research and Mana- gement, 1998(3): 16-19.
［13］任龙,阳晓剑.基于G1法的高层建筑火灾应急能力评价［J］.消防科学与技术,2019,38(5):724-727.
REN Long, YANG Xiaojian. High-rise building fire emergency capability assessment based on G1 ［J］. Fire Science and Technology, 2019, 38(5): 724-727.
［14］何虎军,苏生瑞,王孝健,等.基于未确知测度的崩塌危险性综合评价模型研究及应用［J］.中南大学学报(自然科学版) ,2013, 44(4):1564-1570.
HE Hujun, SU Shengrui, WANG Xiaojian,et al. Study and application on comprehensive evaluation model of landslide hazard based on uncertainty measure theory ［J］. Journal of Central South University (Natural Science Edition), 2013, 44(4): 1564- 1570.
［15］赵洪帝,刘敬贤,刘奕,等.基于改进未确知测度模型的内河客船夜航风险评价［J］.交通信息与安全,2018,36(1):28-34.
ZHAO Hongdi, LIU Jingxian, LIU Yi, et al. Evaluation of navigation risk for inland-river passenger ships at night-time through improved uncertainty measurement model ［J］. Traffic Information and Safety, 2018, 36(1): 28-34.
［16］李丹阳,赵云胜,史小棒,等.基于改进未确知测度法的光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度评估模型研究［J］.工程管理学报,2017,31(5): 117-122.
LI Danyang, ZHAO Yunsheng, SHI Xiaobang, et al. Research on maturity evaluation model of emergency capacity in photovoltaic generation project based on improved unascertained measure ［J］. Journal of Engineering Management, 2017, 31(5): 117-122.

[1]	YANG Jiqin1, TIAN Qin2, XU Zhandong2, LEI Li3. Optimizing Timetable for Urban Rail Transit Network during the First Train Time Period [J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2021, 40(08): 50-56.
[2]	Zhu Shunying, Wu Yu, Wang Hong, Chen Feifei. Uncertainty Prediction and Analysis on Rail Passenger Satisfaction [J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2015, 34(6): 150-155.