Abstract: The relevant flood control capacity of a reservoir was taditionally calculated by designing flood hydrograph and by regulating flood. Then what about the error of this simplified method? This is a problem which the hydrologists have paid more and moreattention to. The aim of this paper is to make an analysis and comparison of the above mentioned methods by way of statistics and experiments, or the Monte Carlo Method(M-C).The method recommended in this paper is like this:set up a flood hydrograph model on the basis of the flood feature of a certain river-basin:simulate enough flood hydrographs with the M-C Mehtod; regulate the floods one by one according to the reservoir flood-releasing rules and then a flood control result will be achieved that can meet the designed standard.This method is compared with the traditional one soas to provide some references for a more reasonable method in calculating the flood control capacity of a reservoir.

Key words: statistics and experiment, flood feature, flood control result, designed standard

摘要： 在水库防洪计算中,传统的方法是通过设计洪水过程线,经过调洪求出相应的调洪库容。对于这样一种简化方法,其误差究竟如何,愈来愈引起水文工作者的重视。本文拟通过统计试验方法,又称Monte-Carlo(蒙特卡罗,以下记为M-C法)方法,对这一简化方法作一分析比较。本文的方法是根据某一流域的洪水特征建立洪水过程线模型,采用M-C法模拟出足够多的洪水过程线,按水库泄洪规则逐个调洪,求出满足一定标准的"防洪后果",以此对传统的方法进行对比分析,为使用一种更趋合理的方法提供一点参考。

关键词: 统计试验, 洪水特征, 防洪后果, 设计标准