Abstract: A reliability analysis procedure is developed for the flexible pavements design method based on deflection criteria.The relationships among pavement structure, fatigue life span and reliability are presented by Monte Carlo simulation method.The results indicate that the variation of fatigue life span mainly depends on the variations of thickness and modulus.The expected value of thickness and modulus have little effect on the variation of fatigue life span.For deflection criteria, the fatigue life span of flexible pavement is sensitive, in the descendiny order, to variation of P, E₃, h₂, E₂, h₁, E₁.

Key words: reliability, probability, fatigue life span, deflection, variation

摘要： 对以路表弯沉为控制指标的柔性路面的设计方法进行了可靠性分析.采用蒙特卡洛模拟法,得到路面结构,疲劳寿命、可靠度三者的关系图.研究表明路面疲劳寿命的变异性主要取决于厚度和模量的变异性,厚度和模量均值的变化对疲劳寿命的变异性影响很小,以弯沉为控制指标时,路面的疲劳寿命对各参数的变异性的敏感程度按由大到小的顺依次为:P、E₃、h₂、E₂、h₁、E₁.

关键词: 可靠度, 概率, 疲劳寿命, 弯沉, 变异性