Abstract: This paper studies mainly the prognostic model which causes the growth of economy, coefficient of elasticity and the demarcate method of transfer rate in the forecast of highway traffic volume.In the prognostic model which causes the growth of economy, besides dealing with the common time and distance model, it puts forward the adoption of analogous model which is more reasonable when the shortening of the time and space distance of the project is not obvious.As to the demarcate method of transfer rate, it advances the forward and converse quadratic transfer curve and discusses the choosing of the index of the coefficient of elasticity, which provides theoretical principles for calculating the traffic flow accurately.

Key words: traffic volume, prognostic model, parameter

摘要： 笔者着重研究了公路交通量预测中诱增经济预测模型和弹性系数及转移率的标定方法.在诱增经济预测模型中除讨论了常用时间距离模型外,还提出了当项目缩短的时间和空间距离不明显时,采用相似模型更为合理;在转移率标定中提出了正向和逆向的二次转移曲线;探讨了确定弹性系数的指标的选用,从而为正确推算公路交通量提供理论基础.

关键词: 交通量, 预测模型, 参数