Abstract: On the basis of prevention policy,this paper decides maintenance cycle and part of the normal route by analyzing predetermined confidence leveland and by establishing and solving mathematics model.Meanwhile the notion of optimization is applied to its determination and to its analysis process.By approaches of technique economy,regress probability,and economy probability,revision is made to meet different demands and purposes,thereby the optimized maintenance cycle is achieved

Key words: automobile, optimization, technique, maintenance cycle, confidence level

摘要： 笔者以计划预防为方针，根据预定的置信度，通过建立和求解数学模型，确定汽车维护周期及置信区间， 并将优化概念应用于维护周期的确定及分析研究。通过技术经济法、回归-概率法和经济-概率法，根据不同 目标的要求进行修正，以适应不同情况的需要，从而达到汽车维护周期最优化的目的

关键词: 汽车, 优化, 技术, 维护周期, 置信水平