Abstract: Based on systematic analysis on the territory of Chongqing debris flow geological development of the macro-environment,it is probable to occur large and extra large debris flow disaster in Chongqing. According to absorbent soil in tensity attenuation law and indoor physical model testing, right slope mudslides and valley debris flow formation mechanism are studied. And the systematic study of the situation in Chongqing debris flow velocity formula provides the prevention a scientific basis. With the utilization of expert system approach, the situation of Chongqing debris flow developing trends is outlined, which provides a scientific basis for the comprehensive utilization of territory of land and resources.

Key words: geotechnical project, debris flow, formation and growing trend, Chongqing, the Three Gorges Project

摘要： 基于对重庆境内泥石流发育的宏观地质环境较系统地分析,认为重庆境内具备发生大型及特大型泥石流灾害的可能性;根据土体吸水强度衰减规律并通过室内物理模型试验对坡面泥石流和沟谷泥石流的形成机理进行了系统地研究,提出了重庆境内泥石流流速计算公式,为工程防治提供了科学依据;运用专家系统方法对重庆境内泥石流的发育趋势进行了分区,分区方案对境内国土资源综合开发利用提供了科学依据。

关键词: 岩土工程, 泥石流, 形成及发育趋势, 重庆, 三峡工程