Abstract: With bridge in service aging gradually,it is more and more important to evaluate its reliability and forecast its life for better strengthening and rebuilding bridge.According to the difference of information from structure service and management,the residual life of bridge in service in Southwest China is forecasted by regression method,grey theory and neural network model.Experimentd results are also calculated by these methods.Research results mentioned aboae can be used to provide more scientific warrant for strengthening and rebuilding bridge engineering.

Key words: bridge, life forecast, grey theory, neural network

摘要： 随着在役桥梁的逐步老化,对其进行准确的可靠性评估以预测其寿命,从而进行有效的加固改造已显得日益重要。根据桥梁结构实际使用和管理中可能获得的信息不同,采用回归分析、灰色理论、神经网络预测等桥梁剩余寿命预测模型,对西南地区在役桥梁的剩余使用寿命进行预测,并给出了实例计算结果。此项研究成果可为桥梁工程的维修与加固以及重建计划和决策提供更科学的依据。

关键词: 桥梁, 寿命预测, 灰色理论, 神经网络