Abstract: GM(1,1) model is used to forecast the number of serious traffic accidents on Chongqing highway.Based on qualitative analysis and the original data,the appropriate sequence operator is defined.The GM(1,1) model with the appropriate sequence operator is established.The test of forecasting results can make out that the proper sequence operator which improves predicting accuracy.This method is simple and effective,and can be reference.

Key words: safety analysis, gray theory model, forecast, accuracy

摘要： 采用GM(1,1)模型对重庆市高速公路重特大交通事故次数进行预测。在定性分析的基础上,把握原始数据的发展趋势,进而定义适当的序列算子,对算子作用后的序列建立GM(1,1)模型。通过预测结果的精度检验,可以说明:适当的序列算子可以提高预测精度。这一方法简单实效,可供参考。

关键词: 交通安全分析, 灰色理论GM(1, 1)模型, 预测, 精度