Traffic Incident Duration Time Prediction Model and Parameters Calibration

Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science) ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 613-615.

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Traffic Incident Duration Time Prediction Model and Parameters Calibration

JIYANG Bei-bei¹, ZHANG Xiao-ning², SUN Li-jun²

1.Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 200235, China; 2.Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Received:2010-04-02 Revised:2010-04-13 Online:2010-08-15 Published:2015-01-22

交通事件持续时间预测及参数标定

姬杨蓓蓓¹,张小宁²,孙立军²

1.上海应用技术学院, 上海 200235; 2.同济大学, 上海 200092

作者简介:姬杨蓓蓓(1981—),女,江苏泗洪人,讲师,博士,研究方向:轨道交通工程。E-mail:jiyangbb@sit.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70401016)

Abstract

Abstract: Effective traffic incident management should be based on accurate prediction of incident durations. Traffic incident duration includes four parts: detection time, response time, clearance time and recovery time. Based on CTM, traffic incident duration prediction model and parameters calibration method were proposed. Measured data and simulation results showed that duration time prediction model based on CTM had a higher precision

Key words: traffic engineering, cell transmission model(CTM ), traffic incident, duration, parameters calibration

摘要： 有效的交通事件管理应基于精确的交通事件持续时间预测。交通事件持续时间包括4个部分:事件发现时间,事件响应时间,事件清除时间和交通恢复时间。提出了基于元胞传输模型的交通事件持续时间预测模型以及参数标定方法。实测数据和仿真数据对比结果表明,基于元胞传输模型的交通事件恢复时间预测方法具有较高的精度。

关键词: 交通工程, 元胞传输模型, 交通事件, 持续时间, 参数标定

CLC Number:

U491

JIYANG Bei-bei, ZHANG Xiao-ning, SUN Li-jun. Traffic Incident Duration Time Prediction Model and Parameters Calibration[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2010, 29(4): 613-615.

姬杨蓓蓓,张小宁,孙立军. 交通事件持续时间预测及参数标定[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2010, 29(4): 613-615.

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Traffic Incident Duration Time Prediction Model and Parameters Calibration

交通事件持续时间预测及参数标定

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