Abstract: Aiming at the phenomenon of returning home by motorcycle during the Spring Festival, the formation mechanism of this phenomenon was investigated and analyzed by using large sample sampling and cluster analysis methods under the direction of statistical sampling theory, which was based on traffic economics and transportation systems analysis method. The results show that the expensive bus ticket, lack of rail capacity and convenience of riding motor are major reasons of this phenomenon. The research results provide a scientific basis for guiding the peasant workers to rationally choose the way of returning home and for the administrative departments to formulate countermeasures.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, tidal phenomenon of the Spring Festival return by motor, traffic economics, statistical sampling, formation mechanism

摘要： 针对春运摩托车返乡潮现象，在统计抽样理论指导下，以交通经济学和交通系统分析方法为基础，采用大样本抽样、聚类分析等方法对春运摩托车返乡潮 现象的形成机理进行调查分析。结果表明：汽车票贵、火车运力不足、骑摩托车便利是春运摩托车返乡潮现象形成的主要原因。研究成果为指导农民工合理选择 返乡方式及给管理部门制定对策提供了科学依据。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 摩托车返乡潮现象, 交通经济学, 统计抽样, 形成机理