Reliability Analysis Methods in Tunnel Construction and Operation

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2020.03.01

Abstract

Abstract: With the development and utilization of underground space resources, the reliability analysis of tunnel engineering is becoming more and more important. Firstly, the three main uncertainties in tunnel engineering were illustrated, such as the variance of rock and soil mass, the statistical uncertainty and the uncertainty caused by inaccurate model. Secondly, the commonly-used reliability analysis methods in tunnel engineering were introduced, such as direct integral method, moment method, point evaluation technique, Monte Carlo simulation, random field simulation, response surface method. And then, the current situations of reliability analysis during tunnel construction and operation were described respectively. In the existing research, for the tunnel under construction, there were more researches on the reliability of the tunnel face and the tunnel section, while the reliability analysis of the influence of tunnel excavation on adjacent buildings was relatively less. For the operating tunnels, the current reliability analysis of tunnels mostly focused on a single disease without comprehensively considering the impact of various diseases. Finally, the main four development trends of the reliability analysis of tunnel engineering were predicted, that is the uncertain characterization of parameters, the development of efficient reliability calculation method, the risk analysis of new and existing tunnel and adjacent structures, the establishment of the comprehensive risk assessment system for operating tunnels. It is expected to provide reference and suggestions for the reliability study of tunnel engineering in the future.

Key words: tunnel engineering, reliability, failure probability, tunnel under construction, operating tunnel

摘要： 随着地下空间资源的不断开发与利用，隧道工程的可靠度分析与研究越发重要。首先阐述了隧道工程中存在的岩土体的变异性、统计的不确定性、模型不准确引起的不确定性3方面的不确定性因素，然后介绍了隧道工程中常用的可靠度分析方法：直接积分法、矩法、点估计法、蒙特卡洛模拟法、随机场模拟法、响应面法等，接着分别描述了隧道施工及运营过程中的可靠度分析现状。现有研究中，对于施工过程中的隧道，针对隧道掌子面及隧道断面的可靠度研究较多，而隧道开挖对临近建筑物影响的可靠度分析相对较少；对于运营隧道，目前的隧道可靠度分析多集中于某一单种病害，并未综合考虑各种病害的影响。笔者最终预测隧道工程的可靠度分析将朝向参数的不确定性表征、发展高效的可靠度计算方法、新旧隧道与近接构筑物的风险分析、运营隧道的风险综合评估体系的建立4方面发展，期望为今后隧道工程的可靠度研究提供参考和建议。

关键词: 隧道工程, 可靠度, 失效概率, 在建隧道, 运营隧道

CLC Number:

U 458.1

ZHANG Wengang1,2,3，WANG Yan2，ZONG Zixu2，ZHOU Xiaowan2，LIN Wei2. Reliability Analysis Methods in Tunnel Construction and Operation[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2020, 39(03): 1-13.

仉文岗1,2,3，王焱2，宗梓煦2，周小婉2，林伟2. 隧道施工与运营过程中的可靠度分析方法研究[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 39(03): 1-13.

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