中文核心期刊
CSCD来源期刊
中国科技核心期刊
RCCSE中国核心学术期刊

Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science) ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (07): 22-26.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2020.07.04

• Traffic & Transportation Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of Highway Rear-End Accident Based on PC-Crash

HUANG Xizi1, 2, HUANG Shuping1, 2   

  1. (1. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)
  • Received:2019-11-06 Revised:2020-05-15 Online:2020-07-16 Published:2020-07-21

基于PC-Crash的高速道路追尾事故参数敏感性分析

黄西子1,2,黄淑萍1,2   

  1. (1. 上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院 交通运输工程系,上海 200240; 2. 上海交通大学 海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海 200240)
  • 作者简介:黄西子(1996—),女,浙江温州人,硕士研究生,主要从事道路交通安全、路网可靠性方面的研究。E-mail:hxz630@sjtu.edu.com 通信作者:黄淑萍(1973—),女,重庆人,主要从事结构可靠性、安全与风险分析、不确定性量化方法的研究。E-mail:sphuang@sjtu.edu.cn

Abstract: Rear-end accident is one of the main forms of highway accidents. Firstly, PC-Crash software was used to build basic collision models between small cars. Secondly, taking displacement and deformation as evaluation indexes, with the one-way ANOVA parameter sensitivity analysis, the influence degree of twenty-one relatively important parameters of the first type built in the software on rear-end accident were compared and evaluated. And ten parameters with high sensitivity coefficient were selected. Finally, taking the impact velocity V as the evaluation index, the sensitivity analysis of ten parameters was carried out by orthogonal test method. And the sensitivity (i.e. the impact degree of rear-end accident) ranking was obtained as follows: reaction time t>initial velocity v0>deceleration a > collision surface angle θ >collision point position p>centroid coordinate y>distance from centroid to front axis sv>vehicle weight w>centroid coordinate x>adhesion coefficient μ. The results show that the top three most sensitive parameters obtained by PC-Crash simulation are t, v0 and a, which are consistent with the results obtained by the following theory of traffic flow. The research conclusion can provide reference for rear-end warning algorithm and model parameter selection.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, highway safety, rear-end accident, sensitivity analysis

摘要: 追尾是高速道路交通事故的主要形态之一。运用PC-Crash软件建立了小型车相互之间的基础碰撞模型;以位移和形变为评价指标,用单因素参数敏感性分析法,对比评估了软件内置的、第一类相对重要的21个参数对追尾事故的影响程度,筛选得到敏感性系数较大的10个参数;以碰撞速度V为评价指标,用正交试验法对10个参数进行参数敏感性分析,得到的敏感度(即追尾事故影响程度)排序:反应时间t>初速度v0>减速度a>碰撞面角度θ>碰撞点位置p>质心坐标y>质心到前轴的距离sv>车重w>质心坐标x>附着系数μ。结果表明:用PC-Crash仿真得到的前3名最敏感参数为t、v0和a,该结论与交通流的跟驰理论得到的结果是一致的。研究结论可为追尾预警算法及模型参数选取提供参考。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 道路安全, 追尾事故, 敏感性分析

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