Abstract: The bank failure is a geological disaster which may greatly threat the security of property and lives of the people along the bank，and simultaneously affect the reservoir storage capacity. Several methods usually used to forecast reservoir bank failure are introduced，the characteristics and the suitability of each method is also summarized. Forecasting methods of bank failure are summarized as follows: take Zuoluotaliaofu method as the condition analogy graphical solution representing， take Kondratiev as mathematical analysis method representing，balanced cross－section method，dynamic method，Xu Ruichun′s bank failure forecast graphic solution certain revisions，in advance information method，numerical simulation method，etc. In project concrete application，combining the characteristics of mountain reservoirs，persisted the theory and the practice unifies principle，selected the reasonable method according to the reality.

Key words: reservoir bank failure, capacity, suitability, forecasting method for bank failure

摘要： 库岸坍塌是一种地质灾害，极大地威胁着库岸人民财产和生命的安全，同时也影响着水库库容。介绍了现有 常用的一些塌岸预测方法，并对各种方法的特点及适宜性做出了总结。总结的塌岸预测方法有:佐洛塔廖夫为代 表的条件类比图解法、康德拉捷夫为代表的数学分析法、平衡剖面法、动力法、徐瑞春的塌岸预测图解的若干修正、 超前信息法、数值模拟法等。在工程具体应用中，结合山区水库的特点，坚持理论与实践相结合的原则，根据实际 选用合理的方法。

关键词: 库岸坍塌, 库容, 适宜性, 塌岸预测方法