Abstract: Perilous rock is one of typical geologic disasters in mountain area. The monitor and prediction of perilous rock deformation are important foundation for prevention and cure of perilous rock. Grey prediction theory was applied to predict the deformation of perilous rock. GM (1,1) model and Residual Error model of perilous rock were established to realize curve fit and prediction of deformation data. Taking Nanchuan Zengzi perilous rock in Chongqing for example, GM (1,1) model and Residual Error model were built based on the subsistent data of perilous rock deformation. After accuracy checking, P=1, C=0.160 243, the precision degree is superior. Compared with the normal prediction method, Grey prediction method is more dependable.

Key words: perilous rock, Grey System, GM (1,1) model, deformation prediction, predictive software

摘要： 危岩是山区常见的地质病害之一,危岩变形监测预测是危岩防灾减灾的重要基础。将灰色预测理论应用于危岩变形监测,建立了危岩变形灰色预测模型及残差修正灰色预测模型。以重庆南川甑子危岩为例,以实测危岩累计位移值为原始数据,建立了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型及残差修正预测模型。经精度检验,小误差频率P=1,后验差比值C=0.160243,模型精度等级达到较高水平,比常规危岩预测方法更具有可靠度。

关键词: 危岩, 灰色系统, GM(1, 1)模型, 变形预测, 预测软件