Abstract: In order to further study the potential risks of dismantling project of long-span cable-stayed bridges, an appropriate risk assessment method for this type of projects was proposed. The main steps included: identifying risk factors by fishbone diagram method, calculating risk weight by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and evaluating risk grade by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Then, the proposed method was used to evaluate the risk of a long-span cable-stayed bridge project. The results show that the overall risk level of this project is medium, and the four most influential factors are the risk of temporary fixture for cables, the risk of water pollution, the risk of crushing and cutting equipment, and the risk of design and calculation. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures for these four risk factors were proposed.

Key words: bridge engineering, risk assessment, fishbone diagram, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

摘要： 为了深入研究大跨度斜拉桥整体拆除项目的潜在风险，提出一套适用于该类型项目的风险评估方法。其核心步骤包括利用鱼骨图法进行风险因素识别，利用层次分析法进行风险权重分析，利用模糊综合评价法进行风险等级评价，然后利用该方法对某大跨度斜拉桥工程案例进行了风险评估。结果显示：项目总体风险等级为中级，且影响最大的4个因素分别是拉索临时工装风险、水体污染风险、破碎切割设备风险、设计计算风险。最后对这4个风险因素提出了相应应对措施。

关键词: 桥梁工程, 风险评估, 鱼骨图, 层次分析法, 模糊综合评价法