Abstract: Rear-end accident is one of the main forms of highway accidents. Firstly, PC-Crash software was used to build basic collision models between small cars. Secondly, taking displacement and deformation as evaluation indexes, with the one-way ANOVA parameter sensitivity analysis, the influence degree of twenty-one relatively important parameters of the first type built in the software on rear-end accident were compared and evaluated. And ten parameters with high sensitivity coefficient were selected. Finally, taking the impact velocity V as the evaluation index, the sensitivity analysis of ten parameters was carried out by orthogonal test method. And the sensitivity (i.e. the impact degree of rear-end accident) ranking was obtained as follows: reaction time t>initial velocity v0>deceleration a > collision surface angle θ >collision point position p>centroid coordinate y>distance from centroid to front axis sv>vehicle weight w>centroid coordinate x>adhesion coefficient μ. The results show that the top three most sensitive parameters obtained by PC-Crash simulation are t, v0 and a, which are consistent with the results obtained by the following theory of traffic flow. The research conclusion can provide reference for rear-end warning algorithm and model parameter selection.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, highway safety, rear-end accident, sensitivity analysis

摘要： 追尾是高速道路交通事故的主要形态之一。运用PC-Crash软件建立了小型车相互之间的基础碰撞模型；以位移和形变为评价指标，用单因素参数敏感性分析法，对比评估了软件内置的、第一类相对重要的21个参数对追尾事故的影响程度，筛选得到敏感性系数较大的10个参数；以碰撞速度V为评价指标，用正交试验法对10个参数进行参数敏感性分析，得到的敏感度(即追尾事故影响程度)排序：反应时间t＞初速度v0＞减速度a＞碰撞面角度θ＞碰撞点位置p＞质心坐标y＞质心到前轴的距离sv＞车重w＞质心坐标x＞附着系数μ。结果表明：用PC-Crash仿真得到的前3名最敏感参数为t、v0和a，该结论与交通流的跟驰理论得到的结果是一致的。研究结论可为追尾预警算法及模型参数选取提供参考。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 道路安全, 追尾事故, 敏感性分析