Abstract: Aiming at the problem that there were many influencing factors on highway traffic safety and it was difficult to quantify the evaluation, the unascertained measurement method was used to effectively evaluate the safety of highway driving. The unascertained measurement function was constructed by selecting indicators from four aspects such as weather, alignment, road surface and traffic conditions. The weight was calculated by the information entropy method, and the risk level was judged according to the confidence recognition criteria. Finally, the proposed method was applied to the study of highway traffic safety evaluation in Hunan Province. The research results show that the use of unascertained measurement theory can accurately evaluate the degree of danger of highway sections, which is reliable and applicable. The study can be used for reference for the highway traffic management department, and can promote the highway operation to be more safe and efficient.

Key words: traffic engineering, unascertained measure theory, information entropy, safety evaluation, influence factors

摘要： 针对高速公路行车安全影响因素多且难以量化评价的问题，为有效评价高速公路行车安全性，笔者利用未确知测度方法进行研究。从天气、线形、路面、交通状况4个方面选取指标，构建未确知测度函数，通过信息熵法计算权重，根据置信度识别准则判断风险等级，最后将此方法应用于湖南省高速公路交通安全评价研究。研究结果表明：使用未确知测度理论能够准确评价高速公路路段的危险程度，方法可靠，应用性强。研究对高速公路交通管理部门有借鉴作用，促进高速公路运营更加安全、高效。

关键词: 交通工程, 未确知测度理论, 信息熵, 安全评价, 影响因素