Abstract: Addressing the issue of excessive crowding and exceeding capacity limits of scenic spots during the holiday travel peak season, sudden large tourist flow scenarios in specific areas of the scenic spots were focused and the impact mechanism of tourist flow warning information dissemination on downstream tourist evacuation psychology was explored, aiming to optimize tourist flow management in scenic spots and prevent crowded and stampede accidents. Firstly, based on the protective action decision model (PADM), the evacuation decision-making mechanism was analyzed. Secondly, the questionnaire survey was designed and conducted to obtain perceptual data of tourists. Finally, a structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to reveal the impact of tourist flow early warning information (risk level, presentation format), tourists’ trust in the information, evacuation knowledge and experience on tourists’ risk perception and panic emotion. The moderating effect of information presentation formats on the psychological impact pathway of tourist evacuation was compared by multi-group analysis. Results indicate that risk level, trust, and evacuation experience are key antecedents of risk perception, while risk level, risk perception, trust, and evacuation knowledge collectively influence panic emotion. Crucially, the information presentation format exhibits a significant moderating effect. “Emphasizing action instructions” can effectively convey risk perception while inducing lower panic levels. Therefore, scenic area management should adopt this as the core strategy for issuing early warning information, in order to enhance emergency management effectiveness and safety.

Key words: transportation engineering; tourist flow warning in scenic spots; tourist evacuation psychology; multi-group analysis; protective action decision model (PADM); information presentation format

摘要： 针对节假日旅游高峰期景区游客过度聚集、超出承载限制的问题，聚焦景区局部突发大客流场景，探究客流预警信息发布下游客疏散心理的影响机制，以优化景区客流管理、预防拥挤踩踏事故。首先，基于防护型行为决策模型（PADM），分析游客的疏散行为决策机理；其次，设计并开展问卷调查，获取游客的感知数据；最后，构建结构方程模型（SEM），揭示客流预警信息（风险等级、呈现形式）、游客对信息的信任、疏散知识和经验对游客风险感知和恐慌情绪的影响，通过多群组分析对比信息呈现形式对游客疏散心理影响路径的调节作用。结果表明：风险等级、信任与疏散经验是风险感知的关键前因；风险等级、风险感知、信任和疏散知识则共同影响恐慌情绪；尤为重要的是，信息呈现形式具有显著的调节作用：“强调行动指示”能够有效传递风险感知，并产生较低恐慌情绪，景区管理方应将其作为预警信息发布的核心策略，以提升应急管理效能与安全性。

关键词: 交通工程；景区客流预警；游客疏散心理；多群组分析；防护型行为决策模型；信息呈现形式