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重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）

重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2006, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (5): 98-100.

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指数平滑法在滑坡抢险工程中的应用

李剑锋1，2，张卫中2，尹光志2，康钦容2，程国建2   

  1. 1.重庆市地勘局208 水文地质工程地质队，重庆 400700; 2.重庆大学资源及环境科学学院，重庆 400044
  • 收稿日期:2005-09-09 修回日期:2005-09-15 出版日期:2006-10-15 发布日期:2015-05-18
  • 作者简介:李剑锋（1975—） ，男，四川大竹县人，工程师，主要从事地质灾害方向的设计工作.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(50374084) 资助

The application of the exponential smoothing method in the landslide treating engineering

LI Jian-feng1,2，ZHANG Wei-zhong2，YIN Guang-zhi2，KANG Qin-rong2，CHENG Guo-jian2   

  1. 1.Bureau of Geological Exploration of Chongqing Province, 208-Branch of Hgdrogeology & Engineering, Chongqing 400700,China; 2.College of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Chongqing University , Chongqing 400044, China
  • Received:2005-09-09 Revised:2005-09-15 Online:2006-10-15 Published:2015-05-18

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摘要： 指数平滑技术是进行预测决策的有效方法,文章首先对指数平滑模型作了简单的介绍,然后根据某滑坡的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了建模和预测,预测结果表明,预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明此模型可很好地应用于滑坡位移预测,可为施工决策提供可靠的依据.

关键词: 指数平滑法, 滑坡, 预测

Abstract: The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is avalid method in forecasting and decision-making.Firstly,the exponential smoothing method is presented in the paper. Secondly, in light of the real landslide conditions, a model is established for the special displacement of some observation points and the prediction which is based on this model came out. The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the fact values error little. It shows that the model may be well applied on the fo recast of the landslide deformation. the method can be used in real engineering. And the decision-making can depend on the results we get from the model.

Key words: exponential smoothing, landslide, forecast

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