Abstract: In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty of emergency response capability evaluation of high-speed railway train dispatcher, an evaluation index system of emergency response ability of high-speed railway dispatcher was proposed, which was from four indexes: quality level, communication and coordination, standardized operation and reasonable adjustment. Fuzzy-AHP was used to calculate the index weight, and the membership degree of the expert group to the secondary index evaluation results was obtained. Finally, an evaluation model based on evidence reasoning (ER) algorithm was proposed. The evaluation process of ER algorithm model was illustrated by the example of high-speed railway train dispatcher’s response to “turnout loss representation”. The evaluation results of ER algorithm model and AHP model on the emergency response ability of high-speed railway train dispatchers were compared and analyzed. The research results show that: when dealing with the fuzziness and uncertainty of evaluation information, ER algorithm model has higher reliability than AHP model does.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, high-speed railway, train dispatcher, emergency treatment

摘要： 针对高速铁路列车调度员应急处置能力评价的模糊性和不确定性，构建了高铁列车调度员应急处置能力4个指标即素质水平能力、沟通协调能力、规范操作能力和合理调整能力的评价指标体系；采用模糊层次分析法(fuzzy-AHP，FAH)计算指标权重，获取专家组对二级指标评价结果的隶属度；提出了基于证据推理ER (evidential- reasoning)算法的评价模型，以高铁列车调度员应对“道岔失去表示”为例，说明了ER算法模型的评价过程；对比分析了ER算法模型与AHP模型对高铁列车调度员应急处置能力的评价结果。研究表明：在处理评估信息模糊性和不确定问题时，相较于AHP模型，ER算法模型评价结果的可靠度更高。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 高速铁路, 列车调度员, 应急处置