Abstract: The advent of short-haul low-altitude flights offers residents new options for long-distance travel within the city, breaking the balance of private cars as a commonly used means of transportation. Significant differences in preferences for means of transportation of traveler with varying needs greatly increase the complexity for airlines in formulating management strategies. To understand the process of residents choice of travel modes and explore airline management strategies, an evolutionary game model between travelers and airlines was constructed. The subjective psychological perception behavior of game subjects was simulated by introducing prospect theory. The decision-making evolution process of game subjects in different scenarios was analyzed according to the replication dynamic equation of evolutionary games. MATLAB was used to carry out the numerical simulation. The evolution process of the system when related parameters changed was analyzed. The dynamic performance payment model was introduced for unstable and fluctuating states of system to optimize the model, and the probability of travelers choosing low-altitude travel under stable state was 0.39, and the probability of airlines actively controlling was 0.82, and the parameter sensitivity analysis was carried out. The simulation outcomes indicate that although the sensitivity parameters in prospect theory can affect the evolutionary speed of decision-making by game subjects, they do not affect the stability of the evolutionary outcome. Travelers with varying travel needs exhibit different risk preferences in decision-making. Factor sensitivity analysis suggests that airlines should primarily focus on optimizing control measures such as reducing flight prices, optimizing flight frequencies, and decreasing passenger waiting time to enhance the attractiveness of low-altitude travel. The research findings provide a theoretical basis for airline management and control.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering; urban traffic; selection of travel mode; evolutionary game; low-altitude travel; prospect theory; simulation analysis

摘要： 短途低空航班的出现为居民市内长距离出行提供新的选择，同时也打破了私家车作为常用交通工具的平衡；由于不同出行需求的出行者在交通工具选择上差异明显，这极大的增加了航空公司制定管理策略的复杂性。为了解居民出行方式选择过程，探究航空公司合理的管理策略，构建出行者与航空公司之间的演化博弈模型，通过引入前景理论模拟博弈主体主观心理感知行为；根据演化博弈的复制动态方程分析不同情景下博弈主体决策演化过程，利用MATLAB进行数值仿真，分析相关参数变化时系统的演化过程，并针对系统不稳定波动状态引入动态绩效支付模式对模型进行优化，得到稳定状态下出行者选择低空出行概率为0.39，航空公司积极管控的概率为0.82，并进行参数敏感性分析。仿真结果表明：前景理论中的敏感性参数虽然会影响博弈主体决策的演化速度，但是不影响演化的稳定性结果，不同出行需求的出行者决策时表现出的风险偏好不同，因素敏感性分析得出航空公司应主要从降低航班票价、优化航班飞行频率、减少乘客候机时间等优化管控措施，能显著提升低空出行的吸引力。研究成果能为航空公司管理控制提供理论依据。

关键词: 交通运输工程；城市交通；出行方式选择；演化博弈；低空出行；前景理论；仿真分析