Abstract: In order to quantify the fault evolution rule of road traffic network, an analysis method of cascading failure of traffic network based on the coupled mapping lattice (CML) was proposed. Using L-space method, taking intersection as node and road as edge, the urban road network in Tongzhou city was abstractly dealt with. The characteristics of the urban road network in Tongzhou city were analyzed by using node degree K, node betweenness B and node strength S. Considering the influence of road network topology and flow characteristics comprehensively, a fault evolution model based on CML was proposed, and the influence law of cascading failure of road network under different combination of external disturbance and coupling strength was analyzed by simulation. The research indicates that: the larger the external disturbance R is, the more likely cascade failure will occur. The successive fault threshold is 1.6 at the maximum node of the deliberate attack betweenness B and 1.8 at the maximum node of the deliberate attack intensity S, which indicates that the topological network is more unstable than the flow distribution network, and the nodes with large betweenness must be protected. When the coupling coefficient ζ2 of weighted flow distribution is unchanged, no matter how the network topology coupling coefficient ζ1 changes, cascade failure will occur in road network, and the time and diffusion speed of successive failures in network are consistent. On the contrary, when ζ1 is unchanged, with the increase of ζ2, cascade failure will occur more easily.

Key words: traffic engineering, traffic network, coupled mapping lattices, road fault, cascading failure

摘要： 为量化道路交通网络故障演化规律，基于耦合映像格子(CML)提出了交通网络级联失效分析方法。采用L空间法，以交叉口为节点、道路为边，抽象化处理了通州市区城市道路网络；利用节点度K、节点介数B及节点强度S等指标分析了通州市区城市道路网络特性；综合考虑道路网络拓扑特性及流量特性的影响，提出了基于CML的道路网络故障演化模型，仿真分析了不同挠动值、不同耦合强度组合下道路网络级联失效的影响规律。研究表明：外部扰动值R越大，网络越容易发生级联失效；相继故障阈值在仿真蓄意攻击介数B最大节点处为1.6，在蓄意攻击强度S最大节点处为1.8，说明拓扑网络比流量分布网络更不稳定，须重点保护介数大的节点；当加权流量分布耦合系数ζ2不变时，无论无权拓扑网络耦合系数ζ1如何变化，道路网络均会发生级联失效，网络发生相继故障的时间和扩散速度呈现一致性，反之，当ζ1不变时，随着ζ2的增大，网络越容易发生级联失效。

关键词: 交通工程, 交通网络, 耦合映像格子, 道路故障, 级联失效