Injury Severity Model of Motor Vehicle Crashes Based on Scobit

doi:10.3969/j.issn.16740696.2020.04.01

Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science) ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (04): 1-5.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.16740696.2020.04.01

• Transport+Big Data and Artificial Intelligence • Next Articles

Injury Severity Model of Motor Vehicle Crashes Based on Scobit

WANG Lixiao1, ZUO Zhi1, YANG Ye1, LIU Jiangshui2

(1. School of Architectural and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830047, Xinjiang, China; 2. Building Design Institute of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China)

Received:2018-05-11 Revised:2019-01-12 Online:2020-04-21 Published:2020-04-21

基于Scobit的交通事故受伤严重程度模型

王立晓1，左志1，杨晔1，刘江水2

(1. 新疆大学建筑工程学院, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830047； 2. 新疆建筑设计研究院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002)

作者简介:王立晓(1976—)，女，新疆石河子人，副教授，博士，主要从事交通规划、智能交通系统方面的研究。Email：xjwanglx@foxmail.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（51108398）

Abstract

Abstract: In order to overcome the default assumption that the slope is the greatest when the cumulative probability of the traditional Binary Logit (BL) model is equal to 0.5, an injury severity model of motor vehicle crashes based on Scobit model was established. Compared with the traditional BL model, the Scobitbased model was more versatile and with wider application, in which a skewness coefficient was added. By modeling and estimating the severity of traffic accident injuries, it is shown that Scobit model is similar to BL model, and better than BL model in the evaluation of information criteria. The proposed model can be a new model choice for the study of traffic accident injury severity.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, traffic safety, traffic accident, injury severity, Scobit model

摘要： 为了克服传统二项Logit（binary logit, BL）模型在累积概率等于0.5处斜率最大的默认假设，本研究构建了基于Scobit的交通事故受伤严重程度模型。该模型与BL模型相比，增加了偏斜系数，较传统BL模型更具通用性，有更广阔的应用范围。通过对交通事故受伤严重程度的建模估计,结果表明：Scobit模型与BL模型类似，且比BL模型在信息准则评价上表现更好，该模型可以成为交通事故受伤严重程度研究新的模型选择。

关键词: 交通运输工程 , 交通安全, 交通事故, 受伤严重程度, Scobit模型

CLC Number:

U491.31

WANG Lixiao1, ZUO Zhi1, YANG Ye1, LIU Jiangshui2. Injury Severity Model of Motor Vehicle Crashes Based on Scobit[J]. Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science), 2020, 39(04): 1-5.

王立晓1，左志1，杨晔1，刘江水2. 基于Scobit的交通事故受伤严重程度模型[J]. 重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 39(04): 1-5.

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Injury Severity Model of Motor Vehicle Crashes Based on Scobit

基于Scobit的交通事故受伤严重程度模型

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