Abstract: In order to explore the reasonable limit scale of ships large-scale, the development process of large-scale of oil tanker, bulk carrier and container ship was reviewed. Using the method of system analysis, the influencing factors of ships large-scale were summed up, and the logical relationship diagram among the main influencing factors was constructed. The influence of ships large-scale on port and shipping market was analyzed; and the future development trend of the key factors, such as maritime demand, transportation distance and transportation organization mode was judged in advance. The conclusion shows that: after several adjustments, the oil tankers and bulk carriers have found a limit value which is suitable for the current development environment. Under the current technology and operation environment, the future container ships large-scale has got close to the stage upper limit.

Key words: transportation engineering, ship, large-scale, shipping requirements

摘要： 为了探究船舶大型化的合理极限规模，回顾了油轮、散货船及集装箱船的大型化发展历程；采用系统分析的方法归纳了船舶大型化的影响因素，构建了主要影响因素之间的逻辑关系图；分析了船舶大型化对港口和航运市场的影响；对海运需求、运距和运输组织方式等关键因素未来发展趋势进行了预判。结果表明：油轮和散货船在经历了若干次的调整后已寻找到一个与当前发展环境相适应的极限值，在当前技术与经营环境下未来集装箱船大型化已趋近阶段性上限。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 船舶, 大型化, 海运需求