Abstract: In order to evaluate and predict the performance of asphalt pavement more accurately, firstly, the weight of each measured sub-index was distributed based on the hierarchical variable weight method, and the technical condition of asphalt pavement was evaluated. The gray GM (1, 1) prediction model of asphalt pavement technical condition index was established. And then, the use status of typical asphalt pavement in hot and humid areas was predicted and the reliability of the prediction was verified based on the measured data. Finally, the maintenance suggestions were given according to the prediction results. The results show that the weight distribution of sub-indexes of asphalt pavement technical condition index evaluation based on AHP is more reasonable, which can more accurately evaluate the actual use of asphalt pavement; the grey GM (1, 1) prediction model has higher accuracy and smaller relative error, which can accurately predict the performance of asphalt pavement in hot and humid areas, and can be widely used.

Key words: highway engineering, variable weight, pavement technical condition index, grey prediction model, accuracy

摘要： 为了更准确评价与预测沥青路面的使用性能，首先基于层次变权法对各实测分项指标的权重进行分配，对沥青路面技术状况能进行评价，并建立沥青路面技术状况指数的灰色GM（1,1）预测模型，然后对湿热地区典型沥青路面的使用状况进行预测并基于实测数据验证预测的可靠性，最后根据预测结果给出养护建议。结果表明：基于层次法的沥青路面技术状况指数评价分项指标权重分配更为合理，更能准确评价沥青路面的实际使用状况；灰色GM（1,1）预测模型精度较高，相对误差较小，能够准确对湿热地区沥青路面的使用性能进行预测，可以推广应用。

关键词: 道路工程, 变权重, 路面技术状况指数, 灰色预测模型, 精度