Abstract: The Three Gorges Ship Lock is a “bottleneck” restricting the development of shipping in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The inefficiency cost of lockage vessels congestion and the impact of congestion on the total value of goods in the dam area have received increasing attention. According to the mathematical description of the problem of lockage vessels congestion, the model hypotheses under Nash Equilibrium were proposed. On the basis of these hypotheses, the distribution law of the departure time of all ships in the dam area was developed. Various kinds of low-efficiency cost models caused by lockage vessels congestion were derived from this. Then combined with the description of the actual congestion cost for the lockage vessels, various kinds of low-efficiency cost models were empirically measured. Finally, by compiling the price index of the cargo waiting to be locked in the Three Gorges, the influence of ship congestion on the total value of cargo in the dam area was analyzed. The research results show that: in 2019, the minimum inefficiency cost of congestion (ie, total travel cost) incurred by container ships ranges from 10,610 yuan to 21,230 yuan, while that of dry bulk carriers ranges from 7,125,900 yuan to 14,251,840 yuan. Among them, the operating time cost of container ships reaches 103.68364 million yuan, and that of dry bulk carriers reaches 203.62449 million yuan; the time cost of cargo transportation reaches 43.43296 million yuan for container ships and 54.13869 million yuan for dry bulk carriers. The total value of goods in the dam area due to ship congestion increases by 1.613% (ie, about 2,536.616 million yuan), and the inhabitant purchasing power decreases by 1.587%. The increase rate of cargo price of ships passing the Three Gorges Dam is higher than the average increase rate of purchase price of industrial producers in the same year. As a result, the profit of the cargo owners has not been compressed.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, transportation economy, congestion cost, bottleneck model, nash equilibrium, price index, Three Gorges locks

摘要： 三峡船闸已经成为制约长江上游航运发展的“瓶颈”，过闸船舶拥堵产生的拥堵无效率成本，及对坝区货物总价值的影响问题日益受到重视。根据过闸船舶拥堵问题的数学描述，提出了纳什均衡下的模型假设，建立了坝区所有船舶出发时刻分布规律，由此推导了因船闸拥堵产生的各类低效率成本模型；结合过闸船舶实际拥堵成本描述，对各类低效率成本模型进行实证测度；最后通过编制三峡船舶待闸货物价格指数，分析了船舶拥堵对坝区货物总价值产生的影响。研究结论表明：2019年因三峡坝区过闸船舶拥堵产生的最小拥堵无效率成本（即总出行成本），集装箱船在1.061至2.123万元之间，干散货船在712.590至1 425.184万元之间。其中船舶营运时间成本，集装箱船达到10 368.364万元，干散货船达到203 624.490万元；货物运输时间成本，集装箱船达到4 343.296万元，干散货船达到5 413.869万元。船舶拥堵造成的坝区货物总价值上涨了1.613%（即约253 661.565万元），居民货币购买力下降了1.587%；三峡过坝船舶装载货物价格增长速度大于同年度工业生产者购进价格的平均增长速度，货主企业利润没有被压缩。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 交通运输经济, 拥堵成本, 瓶颈模型, 纳什均衡, 价格指数, 三峡船闸