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Estimation of Congestion Costs for Lockage Ship in Three Gorges Dam
Area and Its Impact on the Total Value of Goods in the Dam Area
DENG Ping1,2, SONG Lian1, HUANG Chengfeng1,2
2021, 40(07):
23-30.
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2021.07.04
三峡坝区过闸船舶拥堵成本测算及
The Three Gorges Ship Lock is a “bottleneck” restricting the development of shipping in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The inefficiency cost of lockage vessels congestion and the impact of congestion on the total value of goods in the dam area have received increasing attention. According to the mathematical description of the problem of lockage vessels congestion, the model hypotheses under Nash Equilibrium were proposed. On the basis of these hypotheses, the distribution law of the departure time of all ships in the dam area was developed. Various kinds of low-efficiency cost models caused by lockage vessels congestion were derived from this. Then combined with the description of the actual congestion cost for the lockage vessels, various kinds of low-efficiency cost models were empirically measured. Finally, by compiling the price index of the cargo waiting to be locked in the Three Gorges, the influence of ship congestion on the total value of cargo in the dam area was analyzed. The research results show that: in 2019, the minimum inefficiency cost of congestion (ie, total travel cost) incurred by container ships ranges from 10,610 yuan to 21,230 yuan, while that of dry bulk carriers ranges from 7,125,900 yuan to 14,251,840 yuan. Among them, the operating time cost of container ships reaches 103.68364 million yuan, and that of dry bulk carriers reaches 203.62449 million yuan; the time cost of cargo transportation reaches 43.43296 million yuan for container ships and 54.13869 million yuan for dry bulk carriers. The total value of goods in the dam area due to ship congestion increases by 1.613% (ie, about 2,536.616 million yuan), and the inhabitant purchasing power decreases by 1.587%. The increase rate of cargo price of ships passing the Three Gorges Dam is higher than the average increase rate of purchase price of industrial producers in the same year. As a result, the profit of the cargo owners has not been compressed.
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