Abstract: In order to accurately describe the travelers route choice behavior in uncertain environment, a subjective route choice model considering the congestion state of road network was proposed. Firstly, a probabilistic model of route travel time based on segment unit was constructed to reflect the impact of congestion state of road network on route travel time. Then, the cumulative foreground theory was used to model the travelers path choice behavior, and the solutions of subjective utility function, subjective probability function and path foreground value in the model were given. Finally, the influence of road network status, reference point and other factors on path selection behavior was analyzed by an example. The results show that the foreground value calculated by the model is not only related to the selection of psychological reference points, but also related to the congestion state of the road network, which can better reflect the actual travel path selection behavior.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, urban traffic, route choice, cumulative prospect theory, traveler, network congestion status

摘要： 为了准确描述出行者在不确定环境下的路径选择行为，提出了一种考虑路网拥堵状态的出行者主观路径选择模型。首先，构建了基于路段单元的路径行程时间概率模型，以反映路网拥堵状态对路径行程时间的影响；然后，运用累积前景理论对出行者的路径选择行为进行建模，给出了模型中主观效用函数、主观概率函数及路径前景值求解方法；最后，算例分析了路网状态、参考点等因素对路径选择行为的影响。结果表明：模型计算的出行路径前景值不仅与心理参考点的选取相关，而且与路网拥堵状态相关，可以较好地反映实际出行路径选择行为。

关键词: 交通工程, 城市交通, 路径选择, 累积前景理论, 出行者, 路网拥堵状态