Abstract: Improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to evaluate the quality conditions of railway emergency plans. Based on the analysis of railway emergency plan in current research and combining with the field investigation, an evaluation index system consisting of 4 firstlevel indicators and 13 secondary indicators was designed by the method of clustering analysis, from the perspective of comprehensiveness, practicality, operability and scalability of the plan. Using the theory of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the 0.1 ~ 0.9 nine scaling method, a method of “twice scale conversion” was proposed to get the more fair and accurate index weight, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of railway emergency plan was also established. Taking a special emergency plan of one railway bureau for example, empirical analysis was carried out and some corresponding suggestions were proposed for the improvement and adjustment of the emergency plan.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, railway transportation, evaluation of emergency plans, scale conversion, improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, empirical analysis

摘要： 运用改进的模糊层次分析法，对铁路应急预案质量状况进行了评价研究。在分析铁路应急预案现有研究的基础上，结合实地走访调查，从预案全面性、实用性、可操作性、可扩展性的角度出发，通过聚类分析，设计了包括4个一级指标，13个二级指标的评价指标体系。运用模糊层次分析法理论，以0.1~0.9的9级标度法为基础，提出一种“二次标度转换”的方法，获得更为公正准确的指标权重，并构建了铁路应急预案模糊综合评价模型。以某铁路局专项应急预案为例，进行了预案评价的实证分析，并提出了具有针对性的建议，指导应急预案的改进、调整。

关键词: 关键词：交通运输工程, 铁路运输, 应急预案评价, 标度转换, 改进模糊层次分析法, 实证分析