Abstract: Taking urban passenger taxi as the research object, the social stability risk evaluation indicator system of taxi increase was established. The risk value of single risk factor was calculated by using risk matrix theory. The weight of each risk factor was obtained by using Borda sequence value theory and importance ranking method. Finally, the comprehensive risk value was calculated and obtained. Lijiang was taken as an example to carry out the social stability risk evaluation of taxi increase. The results show that the proposed social stability risk evaluation indicator and model of taxi increase are highly operational, scientific and effective, which provides a reference for the social stability risk evaluation of taxi increase.

Key words: traffic and transportation engineering, taxi, social stability risk evaluation, risk matrix, taxi increase

摘要： 以城市客运出租汽车为研究对象，构建了出租汽车运力投放社会稳定风险评估指标体系，采用风险矩阵理论确定单风险因素风险，利用Borda序值理论和重要性排序法得出各风险因素的权重，最终计算得出综合风险。以丽江市为例进行出租汽车运力投放社会稳定风险评估。结果表明：所建立的出租汽车运力投放社会稳定风险评估指标和模型操作性强、科学有效，为出租汽车运力投放社会稳定风险评估提供了参考。

关键词: 交通运输工程, 出租汽车, 社会稳定风险评估, 风险矩阵, 运力投放