Abstract: For comprehensive assessment of the risk in planning, constructing and operating the logistic park, a practical model-DHGF is put forward with the consideration of the uncertainty of the risk of logistic park. DHGF model combines Delphi, AHP, grey interconnect and fuzzy evaluating method. The feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model are verified through numerical results. At last the risk control and preventive measures response to each stage of logistic park are proposed

Key words: logistic park, risk identification, grey system, fuzzy evaluation, risk management

摘要： 为了综合评估物流园区在规划、建设及营运3个阶段的风险,考虑到物流园区风险的不确定性特征,将Delphi 法、层次分析法、灰色系统评估法以及模糊综合评估法加以综合运用,提出了DHGF模型,并通过算例验证了模型 的有效性。文章最后提出了应对不同阶段的风险控制及防范措施。

关键词: 物流园区, 风险识别, 灰色系统, 模糊评价, 风险管理